• Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC remains positive

    The S&P formed a new V1 trigger on Friday after bouncing off support near the midpoint of Monday’s reaction bar. It closed above –1ATR, and Spike Bounce signal is back in a standby mode. The bull is selling its skin dearly. Market sentiment, as tracked by the four timeframes of the CNN Fear/Greed index, provides positive signals as all timeframes are in their neutral or positive zones: a bullish signal that has to deal with vicious divergences that are in play on the longer-term chart. The Composite Fear/Greed index, formed by the assembly of those 4 timeframes, also gives a moderately bullish signal by staying in the positive zone and…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    Market sentiment is improving

    The markets are at a moment of great indecision: on Thursday and Friday the S&P500 closed slightly below its value zone but found support at -1 ATR.  The NH-NL has been showing clear bearish divergences for quite some time, the last strong Spike Bounce (SB) signal has overshot its target and has been extinguished by increasing monthly new lows to be soon replaced by a new weak signal last Friday.  However, the market sentiment seems to tell a different story. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC and S&P at a turning point

    On Friday the S&P500 closed at +1 ATR, a level that needs to be reached and maintained in a bullish environment. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ] After the third Spike Bounce (SB) signal in December (“S” dashed vertical line), FGIC started to rally and is now at the upper edge of the neutral zone, closing the last trading day of 2021 at +2. Next week we want to see a rebound of the S&P above +1 ATR and a breakout…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC still negative, with overhead resistance

    December saw three Spike Bounce (SB) signals, two strong, one weak, while FGIC continued its decline, closing last week still in the negative zone (-6). The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ] The last three SB signals are marked by dashed lines S (strong) and W (weak).  We have seen several times that in order for a price rebound after a SB to be valid, FGIC has to follow to the upside: ideally, we want to see in the coming days FGIC…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC remains negative

    Despite two Spike Bounce (SB) signals in just a few days, FGIC remains in its negative zone, and declining. The two latest SB signals are marked with dashed lines: S (strong) and W (weak).  The rally attempt of FGIC after the strong SB signal was rejected by its neutral zone (red circle) – the area between -2 and +2 – which often works as a congestion zone.  That area will likely be hard to break to the upside. Of the 7 parameters that contribute to the CNN Fear&Greed Index, from which FGIC is derived, the only positive is junk bond demand, suggesting that investors are shifting risk from equities to…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC remains in its negative zone despite the rise in S&P

    The S&P had a powerful rise during this week, following the latest strong Spike Bounce (SB) signal – but FGIC has not yet confirmed that signal, remaining flat and negative. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).   [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ] The confirming signal that the market has found a bottom is given when FGIC rises after a SB signal.  This happened following the October 7th strong SB: after the signal (vertical line 1), S&P continued to decline and the rally started one week later, when…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC enters extreme greed zone

    The last time FGIC rallied above the lower margin (+8) of extreme greed was exactly one year ago. At that time, all timeframes that make up the Composite Index were positive (see green stars), while today the slowest quarterly is still a few ticks below its positive zone. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ] FGIC tends to stay in its positive to extreme greed zone (+2/+12) more than 50% longer than in its negative to extreme fear zone (-2/-12).  This is…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    Healthy markets supported by a positive FGIC

    After the bull run in October the markets are taking a break. FGIC, which accompanied that rise, remained at the lower level of extreme greed readings (+8) throughout last week. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ] When FGIC is in the extreme fear readings, the markets are in pain – a pain that can last for months, but often ends with a violent upmove.  In healthy bull markets, FGIC tends to stay in its positive zone.  Its overruns into the extreme…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC: Markets greedy again

    The end of the latest correction confirmed our earlier data – that a Spike Bounce signal followed by a rise of FGIC out of its extreme fear zone is a powerful combination that marks the end of a correction and the beginning of a new bull market. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. This time FGIC spent 74 calendar days in its extreme fear zone – longer than its average of 52 days. Now, FGIC climbed to the lower end of extreme…

  • Analisi di Mercato

    FGIC turns neutral, confirming the latest bullish signals

    The recently ended correction was the sixth during the period for which we have FGIC historical data. It ended after a cluster of powerful bullish signals that we follow in SpikeTrade: a strong Spike Bounce signal followed by a 1-HL setup and a V1 trigger. The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).  [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ]  FGIC sank into its negative zone five months ago, touching the extreme fear levels twice between July and September.  It has now confirmed SpikeTrade bullish signals by breaking out of…