The last time FGIC rallied above the lower margin (+8) of extreme greed was exactly one year ago.
At that time, all timeframes that make up the Composite Index were positive (see green stars), while today the slowest quarterly is still a few ticks below its positive zone.
The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed). [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ]
FGIC tends to stay in its positive to extreme greed zone (+2/+12) more than 50% longer than in its negative to extreme fear zone (-2/-12). This is consistent with the prolonged, rounded nature of tops versus the sharp, shorter nature of bottoms.